Threats and Vulnerabilities
How threatening is a threat and how vulnerable is a vulnerability?
This is a question that continues to start long discussions.
There is no magic way to determine how threatening a threat is because the answer is always - it depends. The threat of a data breach is very concerning for some companies and for other companies, it is not very concerning. There are so many other things that come into play when you think of a threat. The threat is something that changes with the dependencies. If you drive to work, what are the threats? Other drivers are one of the very highest threats because there are so many unknowns.
Take that same scenario with vulnerabilities - the condition of your car, the condition of other cars. Some of these vulnerabilities you have control over and others you do not. You can keep your car maintenance current and not know about an issue that the manufacturer has not released a fix for and has not notified consumers.
You start thinking about threats and vulnerabilities and the more that gets added to the list. When there is a list, it is possible that you can rank the threats and vulnerabilities from highest to lowest except that is a list that is based on your opinion. The same list could look very different to 10 different people. The list could change from day to day or season to season. Many different dependencies and variables come into play.
So, how do you quantify this data in order to understand how to secure against it? Data.
You need sufficient data to create baselines and an understanding of the landscape that you are dealing with in determining the actual value. Take the value of the data and you may have to average the overall impact over a given period of time. Think about driving and the different seasons. The value would need to be one number which most likely would be the average for the year.
The importance of having a baseline is key to understanding how much impact it has on an environment. The baseline needs to have logic and data to back the process. This is what is key when assigning values. The process has to be repeatable and understandable.
If I tell you that it is more risky to drive in September than January, I need to have evidence because the initial reaction would be that January often has snow and ice on the roads in colder climates. However, September is the month that school is back in session with more traffic in concentrated time along with buses that pick up children along frequently traveled roads. Having the supporting data is key to having an understanding of the threats and risk levels.
Once the baseline is set, it is an exercise in math to determine if a threat is at a moderate level and a vulnerability at a low level the overall risk would be moderate-low or if a numerical value might be moderate is 2 and low is 1 for an overall score of 1.5.
An organization needs to determine its risk appetite to determine at what level that additional controls or measures need to be implemented. One Organization may decide 1.7 and below they will accept the risk while another organization may decide 2 is the level of their risk appetite.
There is not an easy answer and many books and articles have been written on the topic, the overall theme is to have a scale that makes sense and is repeatable.
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